It's been a rollercoaster two weeks since the Pennsylvania primary. This diary is just a sharing of some honest thoughts from me, an unapologetic Hillary supporter. I'm not trying to change anyone's mind on anything, just looking to see what other people are feeling behind the "official" story.
Today just felt so wrong. I can't quite place why, so I'm writing a bit in a stream-of-consciousness style. By all pre-April 22 standards, Hillary didn't do bad at all. In fact, she legitimately did overperform. Two weeks ago, I remember after the PA primary finished, some TV pundits gestured to the map and said "we reconvene again in two weeks for Indiana and North Carolina!"
I got a pit in my stomach. It occurred to me that we were very likely to see a narrow loss in Indiana and a blow-out loss in North Carolina. I knew West Virginia and Kentucky would help patch things bigtime afterwards but worried that losing Indiana and NC would end her string of high profile wins. All spring, I knew North Carolina was bad news. I'd seen the polls and knew that while Hillary tended to perform her final poll averages in most states, the polls in the deep South tended to drastically underestimate Obama support. I genuinely figured it would be like RCP average finishes at +18% Obama and then the result would be +30% Obama, making it close to Virginia and Georgia. I knew it wouldn't be quite as bad as VA or GA so in my gut I shaved a few Obama points off (30% instead of 35%) but still thought it would be just awful. I also knew North Carolina had a huge growing population and a mixed primary, meaning deep down I expected and feared a 350,000 popular vote boost to Obama.
I also thought, on April 22, that Hillary might lose Indiana. When we look at a set of polls, we digest them in a way where we mix them somewhat with what we know about the state's past voting behavior, its demographics, and some other things. So the result is a lot more art than science; it's not scientifically possible to predict races. I thought to myself, "Damn. I think Hillary's in real danger of losing Indiana by 5 points."
So fast forward to today. Hillary wins Indiana by 2%. Obama's margin in North Carolina is less than half of what he accumulated in neighboring Virginia and Georgia. If you told me this on April 22, I would have been elated. "Yay! The big North Carolina monster is off the map and she managed that crucial split decision and won the 'tie-breaker' in Indiana!"
So that happened.
But it felt so awful. The whole night. Really.
I guess I figured months ago that the big NC loss was a foregone conclusion so all eyes would be on Indiana. Instead, the whole evening, all I heard about was Obama's glamorous "decisive" victory in North Carolina. He gave a spectacular speech where he seemed reinvigorated. As a partisan, of course I felt better when my candidate's opponent seemed frustrated, tired, and annoyed. But his speech was really good. His energy was on. I found him likable and frankly I ususally don't.
In Hillary's Pennsylvania speech she used a line to the effect of "this election isn't about me. This isn't my victory. This is YOUR victory." It was an incredible line.
And there it was. Again. But this time in Obama's speech. And since his victory was declared first, he set the agenda by saying it first. When Hillary used the same line in her speech, it looked like she was just copying Obama, even though it was her line.
And what was up with Hillary speech? Obama's looked like it came from Yankee Stadium (venue, crowd) and Hillary's looked like it came from a high school basement. The energy was so sad too. She vowed to fight on. And she finally publicized the Michigan/Florida issue I've been trying to raise the profile of here on MyDD. Her comment about deciding elections on only 48 states made me and my friends cheer louder than anything she said. And I said, "wow that sounds like she borrowed one of my talking points." :-)
But...
Lori, who posts here, is right. Something about the speech, despite all the language to the contrary, felt like a concession speech.
All the words aside and all of the math which I know is not as unfavorable to her as the media suggests aside, it felt like the sadness of a concession speech.
And now she isn't appearing in public tomorrow. I'm really sad.
And yet logically, she's not falling behind the trajectory I had in mind for her in mid-April. Win in PA, narrow win in Indiana, blow out loss in NC, big wins in KY, WV, PR, tossup in OR, and ?? in MT/SD, then seating of MI/FL and sense of momentum affecting superdelegates. In fact, the weakest link was the Indiana win and she secured that. And her loss in North Carolina was much smaller than I expected.
So why did it feel like such a bad night?
Maybe I set my expectations too high with what seemed to be a huge gust of momentum after Pennsylvania. She was in top form campaigning. Obama lost 8 points in his national RCP. He seemed tired and curt. Wright came out again. She started getting a few superdelegates. McCain passed out Obama in head-to-heads. Her electability argument was slowly growing.
So in my gut, I thought we were headed to a +10% win in Indiana and a single digit loss in North Carolina. A lot of polls were confirming this.
The actual results are above my expectations on April 22, but they're very below my expectations from this weekend. She's still very capable of winning mathematically but it feels like she's lost... She looked like the face of old politics that a new rising generation wants to cast off like a nagging parent. And I say this as a 27 year old male!
Despite all the merits on her arguments (which are strong), I feel like she's coming from a losing position. Sometimes, it doesn't matter what you have to say if no one wants to listen. I do think she's a little more electable but in matters of perception, something went awry tonight. I'm not quite sure what.
I don't think she's going to concede but the rumors of her cancelling appearances and overall feel of her speech and the whole night has thrown me. And this is against all logic for me because I knew well in advance that she could get trounced in North Carolina and still win the nomination. She outperformed my pre-Pennsylvania expectations.
And tonight I expected something ridiculous would come out of Lake County and she'd end up losing, making the night unambiguous in its meaning. Now that the last results are in, she wins.
I'm afraid of massive superdelegate rallying around Obama this week. Rightfully or not, with the media controlling the narrative spin on the Florida/Michigan issue (rather than its merits) and this being a battle of perception rather than election (superdelegates), I don't feel very good after tonight.
I still support Hillary 100% and want her to win. I want the Dem. candidate to be legitimate and not be chosen by some weird ploy that counts Guam and American Samoa, but doesn't count Michigan and Florida. If Obama can win with those contests included, I'll support him. If he wins but has to exclude two states, I will genuinely be undecided in the fall. That kind of spurning doesn't go away overnight.
Maybe a full night of watching pundits talk about a 30% win in West Virginia next week will reset the tone of the race? I dunno...
Anyone else feeling similarly?
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