MyDD :: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8

Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8

by BPK80, Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:09:46 PM EST

The poll shows Hillary's continuing trend of pulling away in Indiana, confirmed also today by SUSA where she was up +9%. Polls also show Hillary eroding Barack Obama's national lead and closing the gap in North Carolina. There's a great front page diary that has these figures in them.

Hillary also maintains a whopping lead in Kentucky, per the new SUSA poll.

The tide is definitely turning.

Poll

Votes: 27
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: PPP, Clinton, Indiana (all tags)

Permalink :: 58 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

She will win Indiana. The question will be, does she come close in NC?

by njsketch on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:12:36 PM EST

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

SUSA had the NC race down to 5 today. All the other NC polls show she has closed the gap significantly as well. I wouldn't be shocked if she eeked out a 2 or 3 point win.

The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman

by pollbuster on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:19:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

not holding my breath (none / 0)

I think the gap will be closer than double digits in NC, but I can't possibly think that she wins there. The demographics work against her, especially with the large %'s of blacks who will vote for Obama.

by njsketch on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:26:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not holding my breath (none / 0)

Agreed.

It's now getting to the point where Obama's predicted lead in NC is shrinking so much that Clinton will be able to offset North Carolina simply with Kentucky. Even though Kentucky is a smaller stare than NC, her margins of victory there are going to be enormous.

That means not only will North Carolina fail in its role of "offsetting Pennsylvania" (dream on) but it won't even offset Kentucky + West Virginia.

This is exactly why Obama's fan base was so desperately calling for her to drop out before the Pennsylvania Primary. Because they knew the tide would turn so decisively in Hillary's favor.

Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.

by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:53:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not holding my breath (none / 0)

I would say unless Senator and/or Mrs Edwards endorse Sen Clinton that would make a difference - otherwise BHO will win NC

by indus on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:29:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not holding my breath (none / 0)

They will be offset with the large percentage of whites voting for Hillary. She is presently up 31 points with this group and climbing.

The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman

by pollbuster on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:42:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Where was that SUSA Poll in NC? I didn't see it. (none / 0)

by handsomegent on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:14:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where was that SUSA Poll in NC? I didn't see (none / 0)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=d4d1bc7e-32d4-438e-8143-75c8b2 5b3435

by kristoph on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:52:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where was that SUSA Poll in NC? I didn't see (none / 0)

I thought there was going to be something wrong with the internals, but it looks pretty good regarding the share of the demographics. What's interesting is the white vote. In the past, the white vote in the southern states usually are even. Here it goes 61% to Clinton. If it remains that way, or even, we are looking at a single digit race in NC. African-American turnout will be key.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:59:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where was that SUSA Poll in NC? I didn't see (none / 0)

SUSA polled only 55% females in NC, so far their numbers have been closer to 60%. So this could give a boost to Hillary.

The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman

by pollbuster on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:59:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where was that SUSA Poll in NC? I didn't see (none / 0)

Doing, the math, if it is 60/40, it will make very little difference. The numbers will be 44.2% for Clinton and 49.2% for Obama.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:19:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Anything less than a 20-point win in NC will raise doubts about whether Obama's campaign is still on track. I predict an Obama loss in Oregon, by the way.

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:53:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Really, Oregon??? Wow, that would be an earthquake. I thought BHO had Oregon locked up. Curious to see.

by JFK464 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:59:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

No one knows anything about Oregon. It was assumed Obama would win there, but the basis for that assumption was based on the Washington caucus. Oregon has a primary.

At the height of his popularity, Obama squeezed out a narrow 4% win over Hillary in the Washington primary (WA has both). Oregon is slightly less affluent, less academic/educated, less urban, older, more female, and less diverse than Washington so it's hard to see what would make anyone think Oregon is a lock for anyone at this point.

I would predict Clinton +6% in Oregon when all is said and done. She'll be coming off of a huge win in West Virginia and Indiana looks very favorable to her as well. Then there's this neverending Wright controversy and Obama is ducking Hillary's offer to debate issues of concern to rural Oregonians.

Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.

by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:11:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

But let's be honest about the Washington Primary - I would guess most voters knew it wouldn't count because the caucus is used to allocate delegates.

Additional complicating factor: Oregon votes entirely by mail. So it's quite possible that a significant protion of the electorate has voted already. I have no idea what will happen there, but I want Obama to win.

by NewOaklandDem on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:14:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Now that's interesting - Oregon votes 100% by mail-in eh? Never knew that. I doubt most of Oregon has already voted, though. Hillary would not be making such a push for Oregon if that were so. She's already gotten the governor's support of her highly detailed "Oregon Compact", a 13-page document outlining issues specific to Oregon and explaining how she would address them.

I think folks there are going to be responsive to her substantive, issue-oriented approach, and that's why I think she'll win there.

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:35:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Yeah, the mail in thing is an oddity - I'd say that 10-20% of the state has voted already, not a majority. We'll see how it goes: at the very least we'll get the results pretty fast!

by NewOaklandDem on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:39:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

What do you base the 10-20% on? Do you live there by the way?

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:41:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Educated guessing (so not very much). I live in CA, but have a lot of friends and family in the state, and visit frequently.

by NewOaklandDem on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:56:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

And I guess (downthread) that what I get for guessing.

by NewOaklandDem on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:00:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Oh I'm not attacking you - just trying to see if I was missing a source of info or if you were just guessing. Guessing is fine. That's all most of us do, most of the time.

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:03:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Didn't think you were. Thanks!

by NewOaklandDem on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:05:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Voting has not started yet in Oregon. It favors very very high turnout, which will help Clinton.

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:46:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Today is the last day of registration, iirc, they get them, the ballots on something like the 6th or 8th of May.

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:49:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

My mistake. Thanks for the correction!

by NewOaklandDem on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:56:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oregon High turnout (none / 0)

Why do you think hight turnout would favor Clinton?

by NewOaklandDem on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:59:03 PM EST
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Re: Oregon High turnout (none / 0)

Well she has done very well in high-turnout situations. Most of Barack's pledged delegate lead comes from extremely low-participation caucuses.

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:04:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

SUSA only has 2% "already voted"

by alamedadem on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:55:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Yeah just like HRC needing a 20+ win in PA....Nice spin...

Toot, thank you for raising such a terrific person...You done good and we will have you in our hearts.

by hootie4170 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:41:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

I'm glad to know that you would not engage in such spin.

But, it's true. Anything less than a 20 point win for Obama means 1 of 2 things happened:

(a) Clinton made unexpected inroads with the African American community
(b) Barack lost the "everyone else" vote by 30-50%

I suspect that neither of these things would bode well for him with superdelegates. So I think it is reasonable to say he needs a 20 point win - certainly he needs well into the double-digits.

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:02:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

15 should do it, methinks. But anything over ten would work too, as long as he can pull out a win in Indiana.

by NewOaklandDem on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:04:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Hillary will not lose Indiana. You heard it here first!

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:05:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

We are on our way! Rise, Hillary, rise!

Make phone calls, donate, travel to priary states!

Meet me in North Carolina, where we will stage the upset of this entire race!

by 07rescue on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:13:47 PM EST

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (2.00 / 1)

Nothing can be finer than to be in Carolina for a Hillary win.

The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman

by pollbuster on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:20:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What ? (none / 0)

I wish she was still down by 1%

That way, we could have said that she has erased 80% of Sen. Obama's lead from last weeks Downs center poll..

It is not fair to reverse that lead altogether ~ not easy to fit that into a silly soundbite!!

If you follow history with a long enough arc, things always get better, and the truth always prevails...Gandhi

by SevenStrings on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:17:03 PM EST

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (2.00 / 1)

Polls dont matter. I want to finish it off by coming close in NC (being realistic, if she wins, its checkmate) and winning Indiana by double digits. We have our work cut out. Lets donate or make phone calls if we cant travel. Hillary is the best! I respect her for the person she is.

Howard Dean said voters will coalesce towards the one who they think can defeat McCain. People get it that Hillary is the one, just like Gov Easley.

by Sandeep on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:37:48 PM EST

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

It has 21% blacks for Hillary; that doesn't ring true. It is like giving the white women vote to Obama. Plus, didn't PPP have Obama winning PA by 3 points?

by American1989 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:40:52 PM EST

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Every poll from Indiana shows Hillary getting around 20% of the AA vote.

This is the fourth or fifth confirming the trend. For some reason, Barack Obama doesn't run as well with AA's in Indiana as he does in other regions. It may be that the Chicago media market which has been hammering the Rezko issue so hard in the past few months has affected Obama's support in Lake County, Indiana.

Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.

by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:55:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Gov. Easley always ran strong with the AA here in NC. Hopefully some of the Indiana AA trend is taking root in the AA community down here - that would be significant and would certain shock the prevaling expectation.

If you had everything, where would you put it?

by wasanyonehurt on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:30:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If Hillary Keeps Winning (none / 0)

The Superdelegates will be Obama's firewall.

Dizzy Zzyzzy

by Zzyzzy on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:44:24 PM EST

Re: If Hillary Keeps Winning (none / 0)

Maybe so.

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:38:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

12 pt lead (none / 0)

among dems according to PPP

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:46:14 PM EST

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (2.00 / 1)

He's in the lead. Doesn't need a firewall. He needs to finish in the lead.

Besides we already know that the most important state is any state won by HRC.

by niksder on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:46:19 PM EST

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

"Besides we already know that the most important state is any state won by HRC."

It's funny how you state this sarcastically, and yet it's actually very true in an objective sense. When you're running for president, the most "important" states are the big states and the big swing states.

Certainly, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan, are the most important states in any general election. I'm glad you pointed that out.

Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.

by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:57:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

The Obama fans just don't want to acknowledge this. It's simple guys. He can't win a single state in the south and at least two states in the NE are in play. OH is a goner. This is so blindingly obvious but there you go.

by ottovbvs on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:22:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

There is another poll out of Indiana--which I didn't see diaried yet--which has the race tied at 46% among likely democratic voters. It's Obama 47 to Clinton 45 when indies and republicans are included (I think I read it correctly). At any rate, here's the link:

http://www.insideindianabusiness.com/new sitem.asp?ID=29108

by DPW on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:49:18 PM EST

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Who the hell is Howey-Gauge?

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:53:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A distant relative of Howie Long? (none / 0)

by andrewalker08 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:13:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Another poll shows a dead heat.

http://www.insideindianabusiness.com/new sitem.asp?ID=29108

God I wish I could shut my eys to all of the contradictory information and just wait until Tuesday night. But I have no willpower.

by NewOaklandDem on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:50:39 PM EST

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Same here:-) I keep telling myself polls dont matter. I just need to keep doing the job.

by Sandeep on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:00:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Hehee I know what you mean. I kind of think polls are at least half-useless, but I can't stop checkin em.

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:39:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

If the recent range is "dead heat" to Clinton + 9, and we assume reality is somewhere in between... then Hillary +4.5%

Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.

by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:02:13 PM EST

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

That guess is as good as any. It should be an interesing sideshow to see what polls mit the mark and which ones are discredited.

by NewOaklandDem on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:12:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (2.00 / 1)

I don't see how he doesn't win NC. If his margin is below 15% or even worse below 10% he has a problem. Indiana, she's going to win it probably by about 8% which is what the most recent polls are showing. If he loses Oregon where he was expected to be a shoo in and is a state where the black vote is in sync with the national level he's got a big problem. The bottom line in all this is that what these numbers are going to show is he can't win in November. His supporters seem content to take the risk but I hope they recognize what they are doing. They don't of course because of all the hyper emotion.

by ottovbvs on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:18:58 PM EST

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

To catch him she needs to win 282-126 of the remaining 408 pledged delegates or 69% of them...That translates into 80-20 voting margins in the remaining states...good luck....

Toot, thank you for raising such a terrific person...You done good and we will have you in our hearts.

by hootie4170 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:54:50 PM EST

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

That math comes from Never-Neverland, a faerie tale nation reminiscient of America except that it only has 48 states, Florida and Michigan being conspicuously absent.

Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.

by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:30:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

Deal with it....MI or FL may be seated but they will have no impact on the result.

Toot, thank you for raising such a terrific person...You done good and we will have you in our hearts.

by hootie4170 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 10:40:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana: New PPP Poll Hillary Clinton +8 (none / 0)

I doubt Clinton wins NC, the early voters already leaned Obama (and I heard somewhere it was about 1/5 of the voters). Even if Obama collapses, she will still loose that state. Indiana on the other hand is a whole other story.

by njc2b5 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:01:40 PM EST

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